Everyone is talking about electric vehicles, but nobody can foresee how the markets for battery- powered, fuel-cell and combustion-engine vehicles will develop. Which overall CO2 scenario will emerge from which mix of the various options between now and 2030? The Institute of Vehicle Concepts at the German Aerospace Center (DLR Stuttgart) has developed the simulation model “Vector 21”, which makes it possible to evaluate individual technologies in the overall context of a passenger car fleet and the technical, social and political framework conditions. It is thus possible to run through scenarios that can be modelled afresh when the parameters change or are updated. The DLR describes two particular scenarios in this article.