Future mobility will continue to evolve from its current state based on our ability and agility to innovate mobility solutions for our customers and balancing of energy resources. Mobility, besides transportation from one point to the other, is about the experience, safety, economics – use & pay, shared or single ownership, ease of travel, travel time, comfort, connectivity, and eco-friendliness – end-of-life, recyclability and lower tail pipe emissions. Mobility, in addition, will continue to go hand-in-hand with the technology solutions from service providers, with the advent of newer vista of business opportunities.
Multiple research sources show that drivers will increasingly move away from vehicle ownership to shared urban mobility models, and will be using electric vehicles. In addition, a lot of the transformation to smart cities, the socio-economics and electrification will have multi-modal transportation, with passenger EVs complemented by e-public transportation.
Another study forecasts that in public transportation, e-buses will reach unsubsidised upfront cost parity with diesel buses by 2030. By then, battery packs will probably only account for
8 % of total e-bus price, down from around 26 % in 2016. Consequently, EV sales are projected to increase 10-fold by 2025. Sales will surge to 30 mn in 2030 through emerging countries, especially India and China.
With this sort of growth in e-mobility, the biggest challenge would be the energy harmony and the enabling charging infrastructure. The amount of investments that will have to be made in future mobility to sustain this growth and demand in different parts of the world will be humongous. Studies have also forecast that the wind and solar energies are set to surge to a ratio of almost 50:50, and will be 50 % of world energy generation by 2050. These projections are based on reductions in infra and operational costs, and the technological innovative evolutions that will bring in cheaper batteries.
This will have to be balanced between domestic demands, industries and transportation. Having said that, 700 mn people will still not have power by 2030, but, of the 35 % of new households that do, 10 % will use solar home systems and about 20 % will benefit from micro-grids, as per research data.
With the current investments in oil infrastructure, the diesel and gasoline-based conventional automotive industry will co-inhabit with hybrid mobility and other efficient off-road and on-road solutions. The transition to e-ecosystem will be steady and help major investors reshuffle their portfolios.
The shared model of mobility will grow exponentially in the near future, EV or no-EV. Today’s consumer is certainly wanting to utilise their time efficiently while traveling, seeking better comfort and appreciating that real-estate comes at a premium so it is not to be wasted for parking cars or congesting the streets and highways. The Contentment Quotient of today’s consumer is not in self-driving on a daily basis or to go to work or run errands. The consumer desires co-ownership travel, take an off time to drive on fast-tracks, enjoy adventurous off-roading, and go on short trips in a rental vehicle.
Even the goods transportation business models have started to change to co-sharing pay-loads between multiple locations and use other modes of shipping besides conventional trucks. As such, emphasis on fuel efficiency and weight reduction is high, safety of driver and on-road is under greater focus too.
The telescopic view of future mobility can only be driven by the pentagon of energy balance resources, socio-economic drivers, demographics of consumers, the investors and partnerships between stakeholders. The holistic innovation ecosystem will continue to be nurtured, and continue to exist to ensure that the right mobility solutions are in place.